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Tony George
Free Pick -
Western Michigan vs. Nebraska (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -14.5/100 Nebraska Pick Title: NCAA Free Play
The Bo Pellini era kicks off in Memorial Stadium in Lincoln Nebraska on Saturday to the delight of Husker Nation, who filled the same stadium this past spring game close to 75,000 people. Expectations are high in Huskerland, but also managed somewhat by a level headed new head coach with Husker ties. Actually Bo Pellini is 1-0 as Husker head coach, as he led the Huskers to victory in 2003 in the Alamo Bowl after the firing of Frank Solich, thus an era of disappointment and downslide under Bill Callahan began. The order in Lincoln Nebraska is about to be restored under AD Tom Osborne and his new hire.
Nebraska will be sky high and return in tact a great deal of the 9th ranked offense in the country last year with QB Joe Ganz at the helm, a very capable QB who threw for 16 TD's and 1400 yards in 4 starts at Nebraska last year. RB Marlon Lucky is a top 3 back in the Big 12, and the offensive line returns all 4. The problem is defense, and they were deplorable in 2007. With Bo Pellini running the show, and proving his prowess at calling defenses as head man at LSU, when his defense's dominated the SEC and won titles, expect a re-newed vigor for the once proud Blackshirts at Nebraska. Expect a monster effort this Saturday in all phases as winning needs to be established early and in convincing fashion.
Western Michigan is no patsy, but is in a real tough spot here. Tim Hiller at QB threw for 267 yards per game in 2007 and returns as well as their RB who pounded out 858 yards last year, as the Bronco's ended up 5-7 overall, and to note, 2-8-1 ATS in lined games last year, which is a concern. The defense of WM allowed over 400 yards per game last year and that is the KEY to this game. Nebraska's offense is a Top 5 offense in the Big 12 this year, mark my words. They will move the chains all day long. The defense will be improved vastly and the home opener will be one big coming out party, as Bo Pellini will drop the hammer and make the natives very happy in Husker Nation this Saturday.
Nebraska 41 Western Michigan 17
Check out my Huge Ticket of Winners on Saturday in the NCAA, and my red hot bases too. Put 17 years of experience and Tony George, 41 time award winning handicapper to work for you this season
Matt Fargo's Free Pick Of The
Day -
Ohio vs. Wyoming (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -11/-105 Wyoming
The Cowboys will look to start the season better than they ended it last year as a 4-1 start turned into a 1-6 finish. Part of the problem was a schedule that was bottom heavy with road games and Wyoming has always struggled away from Laramie as it has won only eight of its last 46 road games including seven of 29 in the Joe Glenn era. The Cowboys do have a good home field edge especially in non-conference games where they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven.
Revenge is on the mind of the Bobcats as they head to Wyoming but getting that revenge on the road is a very difficult challenge. The Cowboys won this game last season by a single point in Athens so with that, the thinking could be another close game is in store. That is not the case as that score does not tell the story. Wyoming outgained Ohio 441-292 and more than doubled the first downs but the Bobcats were able to keep it close thanks to a 94-yard kickoff return as well as a 30-yard interception return.
One stat that jumps out was the rushing totals. Wyoming finished with 267 yards on 47 carries (5.7 ypc) while the Bobcats were limited to 37 yards on 33 carries (1.1 ypc) and I would not be surprised to see a similar disparity again this season. The Ohio rushing game will take a serious hit this season with the loss of Kalvin McRae who rushed for 4,398 yards for the Bobcats over the last three seasons. Chris Garrett will take over for McRae and he had just 108 yards last season.
On the other side, the Cowboys bring in a superior rushing game and there is even better news with a new system. The Cowboys should fit into his system right away as it relies heavily on running the ball with a simplified playbook. Reason being is that Wyoming brings back two solid backs in Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon as well as all five offensive linemen. The offensive line is ranked the second best in the MWC and is going to be able to knock around the Bobcats here.
The Bobcats finished 91st in rushing defense last season, allowing 186.4 ypg on 4.5 ypc and with an offense likely to be less productive, it will be up to the defense to improve and help carry the squad early on. That could happen in some cases but not here. After allowing just 303 ypg and 18.1 ppg in 2006, the Bobcats gave up 407 ypg and 29.9 ppg last year. Overall, Ohio once again brings back the fewest starters in the MAC and it is going to show its growing pains. The Cowboys know they escaped this meeting last season so they will not be taking the Bobcats lightly. Play Wyoming Cowboys 1.5 Units
The first full card of the college football season is Saturday and it is loaded with moneymaking opportunities! The TOP PLAY on the card is form an out of conference matchup and one that has the makings of an ANNIHILATION! Join Fargo for his Non-Conference Game of the Month that is backed by a 35-11 (76.1%) Power Situation! Get on it now and bring it home with ease!
Jimmy Boyd Free Daily Sports Pick -
Hawaii vs. Florida (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -35.5/-101 Florida Pick Title: FREE PLAY
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Florida Gators -35.5
Without Colt Brennan, an experienced wide receiver corps, and the coaching wisdom of June Jones, I expect Florida to put a hurt on the Warriors like they’ve never imagined. Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow leads an offense which averaged 42.5 ppg last season and racked up nearly 460 ypg. It’s not an offense you ever want to face, let alone on the road in your season opener. The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Head coach Urban Meyer is 52-29 ATS in all lined games in all games he has coached, 28-11 ATS in home lined games in all games he has coached, 24-4 ATS in all non-conference games he has coached, and 10-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season in all games he has coached. Lay the points.
Big Al's
Free Pick Of The Day -
Reds vs. Astros (MLB) - Aug 28, 2008 2:05 PM EDT
Play: Reds/Astors Over Pick Title: BIG AL's FREE Thursday MLB Winner.
At 2:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros 'over' the total. When it comes to handing out the award for most inconsistent pitcher in baseball for the month of August, you can pretty much retire the trophy and hand it to Houston's 30-year-old righthander Brandon Backe. Consider these stats: sandwiched between three starts in which Backe gave up three, one, and three earned runs respectively, Backe had two starts in which he gave up 11 earned runs (one in less than six innings and the other in less than four innings).
Because of this, Backe's stats over his last four starts are about as ugly as any pitcher in the league. As bad as Backe has been in some of his recent starts, Cincinnati's righthander Aaron Harang has arguably been worse. Like Backe, Harang's last start was strong (at Colorado), but his three previous starts to that were disasterous. One of those starts, which occurred on August 10 was against this same Houston team and resulted in a 13-4 demolition at the hands of the Astros. In fact, none of Harang's last four starts has gone less than a total of ten runs combined for the two teams, and even more dramatically, five of Backe's last six starts have gone a total of ten or more runs.
Terron Chapman
Oregon State vs. Stanford (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 9:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3/-103 Stanford
Jim Harbaugh begins his second season as head coach of the Stanford Cardinal with an opening game against an old friend. Mike Riley will bring his Oregon St.Beavers to Palo Alto Thursday evening as the two teams kick off their respective seasons with a conference clash.
Harbaugh was quarterback under Riley when Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 99-00. In his first season as coach, Harbaugh and the Cardinal made national headlines upsetting then #2 ranked USC. The Cardinal return 16 starters from last seasons squad and will look to avenge a 23-6 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis last year.
In that game, the Cardinal commited four turnover's while rushing for -8 yards on 25 attempts. They were a putrid 1-13 on 3rd down, yet the Beavers only had three more first downs than the Cardinal.
The Beavers led the NCAA in rush defense last season at (70.6 ypg) but must replace their entire defensive line and linebacking corps. They do return three starters on O-line. The Cardinal on the flip side return four starters on the O-line and five players with starting experience on the D-line and should hold the edge in the trenches this go around. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will be on their way to a victory and the way the Cardinal got pushed around at times in last year's game they should be anxious to return the favor.
I'm not too sure about the Beavers who have lost their last five road openers. Their losses on defense are heavy and they still have uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They must break in a new running back and who's to say if standout wide reciever Sammie Stroughter can return to his 2006 form. The Cardinal on the other hand appear to be a team on the rise this year. They return a solid starting quarterback and should have a much improved defense. Throw in the home field advantage and we like the Cardinal to pull off the slight upset. Play on the Stanford Cardinal for 2 units. Good luck to all.
Bryan Leonard
Vanderbilt vs. Miami Ohio (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 7:30 PM EDT
Play: Total: 41/-106 Under Pick Title: Thursday Free Play
Vanderbilt at Miami OH Vanderbilt is returning only 10 starters this season including just three on the offensive side of the football. They lost three players to the NFL draft including wide receiver Earl Bennett who had been a fixture in the end zone. The Commodores do have depth at the quarterback position and the running attack has talent. But the receiving corps has a lot of work to do to make up for Bennett's departure. The offensive line loses all five starters but they do have some experienced players stepping in. Defensively the strength will be in the backfield, led by cornerback DJ Moore who was first-team All-SEC a year ago. Miami is coming off a divisional championship season despite ranking 108th in the country in scoring. We expect more of the same from the Redhawks this season as the quarterback and running back combination looks weak. They do have a solid receiving corps if the man behind center can find his teammates a little more often than a year ago. The defense returns nine starters including one of the best linebacking corps in the country. Clayton Mullins was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year last season and he looks to continue his success. Despite returning just three offensive starters the Commodores still have the better offensive unit. But with the Miami defense returning virtually intact they will still hold the upper hand in that matchup. Vanderbilt beat Miami 24-13 in Nashville a year ago. With the offense being down a bit for the Commodores we can see this game being another very low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER
Alex Smart Sports
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -7/-104 Oklahoma State
There are some key mismatches in this non conference tilt featuring Oklahoma State and their hosts Washington State . One of the most glaring of which comes via the Cowboys offensive line and the Cougars defensive line . With four key starters back for Oklahoma State I expect this big experienced group will step over and dismantle their opposition play after play, making for big gaping holes up the middle , that running backs Kendall Hunter and JUCO transfer Beau Johnson will exploit . I also expect lots of time for QB Zac Robinson to sit in the pocket and pick apart an extremely vulnerable Wazzu secondary. There is not doubt in mind, that the Cowboys are going to score points in bunches today. Meanwhile, Washington State under new HC PaulWulff, comes into his first game , ready to fire back behind a shot gun offense, that is gearing up to play wide open football this season, in part because of their obvious defensive deficiencies. Oklahoma States pedestrian defense has proven itself to be equally inept , but with this tilt being so early in the season, the Cougars , who are still learning a multitude of new schemes , will be unable to consistently take advantage of the situation, which I believe will have them on the wrong side of the score when the final whistle blows. Final notes & Key Trends: This is not a true home game for Washington State, as this contest will be played in Seattle. WSU has lost 25 of their L/37 SU against Big 12 opposition . The Cowboys when they have scored 28 points or more in a road game are a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 winning those games by an average of just under 20 PPG. Play on Oklahoma State -Projected score: Cowboys 38 Cougars 30
Tony Stoffo
Utah vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 12:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3.5/-111 Utah Pick Title: 5 units
Boy have things changed in Ann Arbor as the odds makers are giving little or no credit to this 08 version of Rich Rodriguez's new team making them just a 3 point favorite here. And the unknowing public has already started to bet the Wolverines with 72% of all bets placed. Yet the line has dropped on Michigan as the sharps know what his team is made up of. With new quarterbacks, a very inexperienced offensive line, and a group of Freshman running backs Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw, wide receivers Martavious Odoms and Darryl Stonum seeing their first action. I look for a very nervous Michigan team taking the field with the memories of what happened last season against Appalachian State, and Oregon to start the season. So I look for Utah with 16 starters returning, and their skill players once again healthy including QB Brian Johnson, RB Matt Asiata, and WR Brent Casteel to come away with the outright win here. This game sets up as a trap and we won't fall for it as we makes the Utes our solid value play for today. Utah is 22-9 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Chris Copeland
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State (NCAAF) - Aug 30, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -7/-104 Oklahoma State Pick Title: Week One Free Play
Oklahoma St returns fifteen starters from last season including a solid QB in Zac Robinson. Robinson flourished in the spread offense and looked especially strong in spring camp.
Washington St is in rebuilding mode. After losing four-year starter QB Alex Brink and breaking in a new scheme with a new head coach, look for the Cougars to take a step back this season. Wazzu will implement a form of the no-huddle offense, but with no experienced QB, it will take some time to grasp Wulff's offense. The Cougs scoring defense ranked near the bottom of the barrel in D-I last season, so Robinson and the high-powered Cowboy offense should put up points at will.
Bottom line here is even though Oklahoma St has issues winning on the road; this might be their best team in some time. Look for both offenses to put up a lot of points, but the more experienced QB to make fewer mistakes which will lead to the Cowboys victory.
Oklahoma St- 42 Washington St- 31
John Ryan
Wake Forest vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 12/-109 Baylor Pick Title: Baylor
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baylor - AiS shows a 68% probability that Baylor will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Love these early season DOGS that have 9 or more returning offensive starters along with the QB. That is the case for Baylor as they return 9 including the QB and this will be a dominant factor in this game. Wake Forest also has a history of not being a solid double digit favorite either noting they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play and the returning starter phenomenon is a strong system posting a 75-36 ATS mark for 68% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB returning as starter. Don't laugh either as I strongly believe taking a 1* unit on the money line is a solid bet as well. I have seen this line at +450 and offers a great opportunity. We are not going to win a high percentage of these ML plays, but if we hit between 43 and 48% (last 5 seasons) then it will make a significant contribution to the bottom line.
Tony Stevens
Troy vs. Middle Tenn St (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Troy Pick Title: Free Pick
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Craig Trapp
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros (MLB) - Aug 28, 2008 2:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: 132 Cincinnati Reds Pick Title: Craig's Free play for Thursday
What value play. Take CIN here over HOU. With Cincinnati starter Aaron Harang (4-13, 5.35 ERA) having a subpar season, the Astros' lineup will have a good opportunity to build some momentum. One of Harang's worst starts of the season came against Houston on Aug. 10, when he allowed eight runs and nine hits in four innings as Cincinnati lost 13-4. Harang is 8-6 with a 4.49 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Astros. The veteran right-hander snapped a three-start losing streak in his last outing, though, giving up six hits in six shutout innings as Cincinnati beat Colorado 8-5 on Friday night. He had been 0-4 with a 10.74 ERA in his previous six starts. Think Harang is finally healthy and will have another great game. Houston will counter with Brandon Backe (8-12, 5.54 ERA), who won his last start, allowing three runs and five hits in seven innings as Houston beat the New York Mets 8-3 on Saturday night. Look for CIN to win a close one. SCORE CIN 5 - HOU 3
Tony Karpinski
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - Aug 28, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -3/-105 Dallas Cowboys Pick Title: Free Pick Winner
I see a lot of value tonight on the Dallas Cowboys in pre-season action. There are still several position to be filled before final cuts and the guys will be playing very hard especially on Special Teams! Dallas is 4-1 ATS where the total is 35 points or less the last three years, and they are 3-1 ATS when playing a home game where the total is between 32.5 to 35 points the last three years. Look for the Dallas Cowboys to roll over the Minnesota Vikings in a big way tonight as the Vikings aren't expected to show much.
Erik Scheponik
NC State vs. South Carolina (NCAAF) - Aug 28, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Total: 45/-105 Under Pick Title: Free Thursday Night Football Selection
Even though the reports have been good on Wolfpack redshirt freshman QB Wilson, this South Carolina defense is a tough task for him without 2 of his top 3 backfield mates as well as his leading returning receiver all out due to injury. That Gamecock defense was one of the nation's best last season, before injuries and some brutal SEC O-lines wore it down late in the year, but they return 10 starters and are healthier than they were at any point last season. They play a bend-but-don't break, so even if Wilson is able to move on them, he will have trouble getting in the end zone. USC QB Beecher is making his first start as well, and there are athletes on the NCSU defense. 27-14 South Carolina PLAY UNDER
BeatYourBookie.com
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants (August 27) (10:15 P.M. EST)
Play: SAN FRANCISCO (-235) Title: 50* Free Play
San Francisco pitcher, Tim Lincecum has won 12 of the last 13 games when the team is coming off 2 or more consecutive losses and he is also 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 0.90.
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